The Senate is staring down multiple flash points in the coming months as lawmakers head into a year colored by electoral politics but with plenty of policy fights on the horizon.
Lawmakers wrapped up a grueling year by completing some of their pre-holiday agenda, including passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act and confirming scores of nominees. But they punted several key issues into January, including government funding bills to avert a shutdown and a potential deal to extend expiring enhanced ObamaCare subsidies.
Members are expected to pick both issues up in the new year, alongside a number of electoral and political questions that will set the tone for the Senate throughout 2026.
Here are five things to watch in the new year as lawmakers return to Washington on Jan. 5.
A shutdown repeat?
Congress returns to work less than two months after ending the longest shutdown in history, with lawmakers intent on avoiding a repeat this time around.
Lawmakers passed three full-year bills alongside a stopgap spending bill in November, leaving them with nine funding bills to go — none of which have passed either chamber.
The Senate was on the doorstep of getting the ball rolling on a five-bill “minibus” before the holiday recess but was stymied when the pair of Democratic senators from Colorado objected to speedy passage over funding for the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder that the administration nixed.
But senators are encouraged by where things stand, despite the most recent tumult. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), who chair the Senate and House Appropriations panels, announced they had reached a deal on top-line spending levels for fiscal 2026 and could begin crafting the spending bills.
There are still bumps in the road ahead. Quick passage is hardly the norm when it comes to spending deals, especially as the consent of all 100 senators is needed to speed up passage, with the pre-holiday holdup serving as a prime example.
And crafting a bill that can overcome a Democratic filibuster in the Senate and either win the support of conservatives in the House or get such overwhelming support that the Speaker can fast-track it is a delicate balancing act. Cole has already said he is skeptical he can move a five-bill minibus through the lower chamber.
Adding to the positive feelings, however, Democrats in the Senate do not seem intent — at least publicly — on using the enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits as a negotiating tool ahead of the Jan. 30 deadline.
“My sense is that approach and the question of the health care subsidies are now not on the same tracks. They’re not on the same timeline,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), an appropriator who is expected to be the No. 2 Senate Democrat come 2027. “Because appropriations is going — I wouldn’t say well, but better than it had been — there’s a desire to get that done.”
Health care discussions
Perhaps no issue has vexed lawmakers this year more than the enhanced ObamaCare subsidies, which expired at the end of 2025 after the two sides were unable to come to an agreement.
This means that talks, which were going on during the final week before senators left Washington, are set to extend into January as a bipartisan group of lawmakers works to find a deal.
A group of nearly two-dozen members huddled on Dec. 15 in the aftermath of two failed Senate votes to discuss a path forward, with talks centering on a proposal from Collins and Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) that would pair a two-year extension of the subsidies with conservative-leaning reforms. Attendees reported good progress and expected discussions to continue.
But that doesn’t mean members are optimistic that something will get done when push comes to shove — especially to kick off an election year.
“There’s a lot of things that have to come together,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters before the chamber adjourned. “I’m not saying it’s likely, and I’m not saying it’s impossible.”
Some Republicans find it hard to believe that Democrats are truly more interested in reaching a deal than in using the issue as a political cudgel next year.
Similarly, Democrats think Republicans’ long-held opposition to the ACA will ultimately keep a deal from coming to fruition.
There are some wild cards to take into account as well, headlined by the House’s impending vote on a Democratic discharge petition to extend the subsidies for three years. Although the Senate just voted on a similar bill, Democrats see this as something that could push talks along.
“It’s completely different when the number of people on the [GOP] side who said to me, ‘Why would we do something if the House is just going to kill it anyway?’” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.). “Well, OK — now we know that it’s not DOA in the House. When they send a bill over, that means it’s not DOA.”
Reconciliation 2.0?
Nearly six months after Congress greenlighted President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, some Republican lawmakers are signaling they’re ready for another bite at the reconciliation apple
GOP leaders have kept the door open to cobbling together a second package via budget reconciliation — which allows a majority party to pass key priorities by bypassing the legislative filibuster in the upper chamber — but have hardly committed to doing so.
“It’s an option. You have to have a reason to do it,” Thune told reporters, adding that it all depends on how the health care talks go or if there’s “tax stuff” that needs addressing. “I’m not ruling it out at this point or ruling it in, but you have to have a reason to do it.”
“You don’t just do reconciliation for the heck of it,” he added.
Some Republicans, however, are tired of sitting on their hands.
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Semafor that he plans to get going on a budget resolution, which would serve as a blueprint for the final bill, soon after lawmakers return to Washington.
Such a package could center on immigration-related items and military funding, Graham said, adding that it would be a mistake to not plow ahead on a second single-party measure.
“It would be political malpractice not to do another reconciliation,” he said.
Lawmakers to spend less time in DC with election in view
Next year will look different for the upper chamber, with members spending less time in Washington and more time in their home states as the legislative agenda begins to take a back seat to the midterms.
Senators started 2025 by being in session for 13 of the first 14 weeks of the year, setting the tone for a year with only 13 weeks not in session, including the annual August recess.
Next year, 21 weeks will be spent away from Washington, including 10 weeks across August and the preelection stretch in October and November.
Put simply, burned out lawmakers and Capitol Hill staffers will not be upset by this development.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) made reference to the breakneck pace of the past year while announcing plans to retire from the chamber after a single term.
“Deciding not to run for re-election does represent a change of heart for me, but in the difficult, exhausting session weeks this fall I’ve come to accept that I do not have six more years in me,” she said in a statement announcing her plans.
“I am a devout legislator, but I feel like a sprinter in a marathon,” she said. “The energy required doesn’t match up.”
The time will give those up for reelection in the fall a much-needed opportunity to make their case for six more years in office and sell the GOP’s tax and spending reconciliation bill. But it will make for a less ambitious agenda in Washington.
“It gives us the opportunity to be able to be home more around our states and get a chance to be able to just talk with people and get feedback,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). “That’s very helpful.”
There are other plusses, Lankford conceded.
“The biggest gift is getting a chance just to actually see my wife more,” he said.
Schumer looks to rebound
To put it mildly, 2025 was not a banner year for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
The New York Democrat, who is closing in on a full decade as leader, found his standing atop the caucus questioned by key segments of the Democratic base after he voted for a GOP-led continuing resolution to keep the government open in the spring.
Months later, Schumer helmed the 43-day shutdown for his party, yet he was still on the receiving end of anger from progressives after a group of moderate-leaning Democrats voted to reopen the government. Progressives accused him of either being asleep at the wheel or blessing the talks behind closed doors.
Adding fuel to the fire was his nonendorsement of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, with his approval rating falling to historic lows.
“It goes with the territory,” Schumer told Punchbowl News of the criticism. “When you’re going to be leader, you have to make tough decisions which you think are good for the country, good for your caucus and good for the party. And you’re going to get criticism.”
Whether his problems get any easier is an open question, especially come November, given the need to win four seats to flip the chamber.
The leader has also reached a point that both Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) hit in the late 2010s where their party’s nominees in key races declined to support them.
Both, however, held on to their leadership perches for years to come and told their candidates to do what they had to do to win or keep hold of majorities.
“Just win, baby,” Pelosi said during the 2018 cycle.
The good news for Schumer, though, is that his leadership post isn’t in true danger. There’s no obvious candidate to take him down, with those who could potentially take over as leader being allies of his or more likely to run in 2028 for president.