Accurate trend projections are critical for effective renewal planning and budget forecasting, and according to HUB International’s 2026 Trend study, health care costs will only continue to rise throughout 2026.
Key regional observations for 2025 reveal that the east region consistently shows the highest medical trends across all plan types, with Med/Rx combined at 10.04%, nearly two percentage points above the national average. Following the east region, the pacific region exhibits the second-highest trends on most categories, particularly in indemnity plans (11.05%) and Rx (11.08%) according to the study.
Meanwhile the south and central regions continually reveal the lowest trends, according to the study. The south region generally shows the lowest trends for medical coverage, approximately 0.8-1.0% below national averages. Additionally, the central region maintains the lowest trends in most plan types except for dental, where it exceeds the national average.
Among notable trend shifts in 2025-2026 data, pharmacy trends accelerated significantly, with National Rx trends jumping from 10.43% to 11.26% (+0.83 percentage points), representing the largest category increase year-over-year.
Additionally notable, the east region shows the only regional decrease in Med/Rx combined trends (from 10.04% to 9.80%), which is due to the variation in carrier participation for the 2025 vs. 2026 data set.
According to carrier partners, the factors which have contributed to increasing trend include increased utilization, high cost prescription drugs, price inflation, regulatory and legislative impacts, deteriorating population health and increased severity of facility claims.
Meanwhile, according to carrier partners, some factors have contributed to offsetting trend increases including site-of-care optimization, biosimilars adoption, GLP-1 drug management, medical and risk management, and overall trend stabilization.
These key findings reveal that healthcare costs are accelerating, with 2026 trends projected at 8-10% for combined Medical and Rx coverage, driven primarily by specialist pharmaceuticals (10-12% Rx trend) and significant regional variations. Multiple cost drivers are converging to create sustained upward pressure.
Finally, the report reveals that pharmacy costs represent the greatest challenge and opportunity, with specialty medications now comprising over 50% of pharmacy spend and GLP-1 medications for diabetes and obesity emerging as major cost drivers requiring immediate management strategies including step therapy, biosimilar adoptions and restrictive coverage criteria.