Asked about the experiment, a CMS spokeswoman said: “All drug coverages undergo a cost-benefit review. CMS does not comment on potential models or coverage.”
Congress’s official scorekeeper has estimated that covering the drugs for obesity would cost Medicare about $35 billion from 2026 to 2034. Ozempic and Wegovy are among 15 drugs for which Medicare is negotiating lower prices for 2027.
Top influencers in the “Make America Healthy Again” movement are also skeptical of GLP-1s for weight loss. Jillian Michaels and Mark Hyman have suggested that the drugs change patients’ metabolisms in a manner that causes people to regain the weight they lost, or make it more difficult to lose weight again if they stop taking the drug. Such concerns are echoed by researchers trying to find ways to prevent weight regain after people stop using GLP-1 medications.
GLP-1 injections cut cravings for food, slow digestion and keep people feeling full for longer periods of time as the drugs mimic a hormone the body produces to regulate hunger and blood sugar.
David Rind, chief medical officer for the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, which has studied the cost-effectiveness of GLP-1s, said the drugs are priced reasonably for the enormous health benefits they deliver to individuals. A typical treatment plan costs between $5,000 and $7,000 per year.
The problem lies with the sheer number of obese Americans — around 100 million people — who would probably need to take GLP-1s for their lifetime to see continuing benefits, he said.
“In the aggregate, this is terrifying,” Rind said. “I just don’t know how our nation is going to pay for this.”
It’s unclear how many states and drug plans might choose to participate in the experiment. Insurers heavily pressured the Trump administration to walk back the Biden-era plans to cover the drugs under Medicare and Medicaid, citing steep costs.
Thirteen state Medicaid programs have chosen to cover GLP-1s for obesity. But many states are deeply concerned about an expected loss of federal Medicaid funds stemming from the tax overhaul bill that President Donald Trump signed on July 4.
The goal of the administration’s experiment is to improve the metabolic health of patients by covering GLP-1s and providing “a healthy lifestyle support system,” according to the CMS documents. To participate, Medicare plans and state Medicaid programs would also need to provide patients with diet and exercise coaching. Participating Part D plans would have to offer the drugs to all eligible enrollees.
“The model aims for broad national participation to maximize impact,” the documents say.
The GLP-1 agonist Orforglipron would also be included if it’s approved in 2026, according to the documents.
Although thousands of people have been laid off from the Department of Health and Human Services amid widespread government staffing cuts, the administration has signaled that it wants to boost the CMMI, which is running the experiment on funding GLP-1 medications. That center was largely spared from staff cuts this year and is now hiring about 100 new workers, according to Politico.
Asked to comment on the CMMI experiment, a spokesperson for Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wegovy, said, “We believe that comprehensive coverage through government and commercial insurance plans is critical to affordable health care and treatment options.”
Eli Lilly, which makes Mounjaro and Zepbound, did not respond to a request for comment.