The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule this month in the King v. Burwell case that challenges whether low- and moderate-income Americans are eligible for subsidies to help pay for insurance if they live in states where the federal government, rather than the state, established its new insurance marketplace under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
Using 2015 enrollment data released today, a new Kaiser Family Foundation analysis and interactive map breaks out how residents in each of the 34 states without a state-based exchange would fare if the Court sides with the challengers.
The analysis looks at the total number of residents in each state that would lose premium assistance, and the total dollars in subsidies that would be lost in each state, as well as the size of the lost subsidy for the average resident, and the resulting percentage increase in their premiums.
The analysis finds that Florida would be most affected in terms of the number of people losing subsidies (1.3 million), and the total monthly value of those subsidies ($389 million), with Texas ranked second in both categories (832,000 residents losing a total of $206 million per month).
When looking at the impact per person, subsidized enrollees in Mississippi fare the worst, with the average enrollee facing an average premium increases of 650 percent if the Court rules for the challengers.
Nationally, 6.4 million people would lose subsidies collectively worth $1.7 billion per month if the Court rules for the challengers. Subsidized enrollees would see an average effective premium increase of 287 percent if they had to pay the full cost of coverage.
The analysis and interactive map reflect the latest state-by-state enrollment, subsidy and premium data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. It is available online, along with other resources addressing key aspects of the King v. Burwell case and its potential implications.